Why weapons crucial to the war in Ukraine are in short supply

Of all the assistance America has provided to Ukraine, the gift of 5,500 or so Javelins has been perhaps the most welcome. Armed with these light anti-tank missiles, Ukrainian forces managed to stall, and eventually reverse, the Russian advance on their capital, Kyiv. Little wonder, then, that the Javelin has acquired exalted status among Ukrainians, celebrated in music and paintings (an image of the Virgin Mary holding a Javelin has gone viral).

The Javelin features a fearsome combination of power and precision. It is a “fire-and-forget” weapon, allowing soldiers to take cover quickly after firing. It can strike targets more than 3km away and hit the top of the tank—its most vulnerable part.

In all, America and its allies have provided more than 60,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. These include not just the Javelin but also the Panzerfaust from Germany and Next-generation Light Anti-tank Weapons (NLAWs) from Britain and Sweden. All have helped (along with other types of weapons). More than 3,000 Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles in Ukraine have been destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured, according to Oryx, an open-source intelligence blog. With Russian forces narrowing their focus on Donbas, however, still more weapons are needed. More than 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles remain in operation (with thousands more in storage), according to Mark Cancian of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. President Joe Biden has asked Congress for a whopping $20bn more in military aid. But assistance in the form of Javelins and other anti-tank systems could soon dry up.

This may reflect a lack of capacity more than a lack of will. According to data compiled by The Economist from army budget documents, America has bought around 34,500 Javelins since they were deployed in 1996. Procurement increased significantly during the early 2000s when America was ensnared in two wars, in Afghanistan and Iraq. Since then, however, the pace has fallen. America does not release details of its stock of Javelins. But Mr Cancian reckons that America has to date used up between 12,500 to 17,500 missiles for training and testing. That would leave between 17,000 and 22,000 Javelins in America’s arsenal—not counting the weapons it has deployed in in combat. Take away the 7,000 Javelins or more that Mr Cancian estimates America has sold or donated to Ukraine since 2018 and the stock could now be as low as 10,000. In other words, America may have given away a third of its stock.

It is not just Ukraine that needs Javelins. European allies are re-arming, too. And just replenishing America’s stockpile will take time. The Lockheed Martin factory that produces the Javelin is designed to build 2,100 of the missiles a year, and it normally takes 32 months after an order has been placed for them to be delivered. It could in theory go up to 6,480 a year with extra shifts, but arms manufacturers are having trouble finding workers and spare parts—especially semiconductors. America is also running low on the Stinger, a man-portable anti-aircraft missile with many obsolete, hard-to-find parts. Many defence experts think such shortages are a warning of America’s inadequate investment in munitions, especially given the rising tension with China. In 2018 a government-commissioned panel of national-security experts highlighted the need to expand America’s munitions base.

The war in Ukraine may trigger such investment. On May 3rd Mr Biden visited the facility in Alabama where Lockheed Martin produces Javelins. He used his visit to call on Congress to approve his $20bn military aid request, some of which would go towards boosting production of the missiles. In 2022 Javelins cost roughly $350,000 each. If orders were to increase, Lockheed Martin (and its partner in the Javelin joint venture, Raytheon) would join the Ukrainians in celebrating the Javelin’s prowess. ■

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