Its proxy groups may be delaying Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza
ANY CONFLICT in the Middle East involves a complex web of allies and enemies. The war between Israel and Hamas risks spreading beyond its current borders if militias backed by Iran—the “axis of resistance”—scale up their involvement.
So far Iran’s proxies have shown a degree of caution. And, even if they did increase their involvement, Israel is well equipped to defend itself. It has an air force, the Iron Dome air-defence system, which can intercept missiles, and the backing of America. But the balance of firepower is not as lopsided as it once was. Groups backed by Iran, which include Hamas, Hizbullah and Houthis, have been amassing higher-quality weapons over the past decade. Our maps show the capabilities of their arsenal.
Take Hamas first. Gaza’s ruling militia is believed to have missiles that could reach as far north as the Golan Heights (were it not for Israel’s air defences). But the group relies more heavily on its vast collection of low-cost projectiles. On October 7th Hamas launched several thousand of these rockets towards Israel. Most only made it just beyond the border but some reached as far as the southern suburbs of Tel Aviv. (Hamas’s gunmen killed far more people on that day than its missiles did.)
Beyond Gaza, the war risks involving Hizbullah, the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor. Its rocket arsenal is thought to number 150,000. Among them are hundreds of Fateh 110 ballistic missiles, thought to have a range of 260km, putting most of Israel within its reach. (Israeli towns near Lebanon’s border have already been evacuated.)
With help from Iran, the group has greatly increased the quantity and quality of its arsenal over the past decade. It is particularly well stocked with small and nimble launchers that enable indiscriminate rocket fire. Such weapons are harder to counter with airpower, which means that Israel would need to send troops into Lebanon to be sure of stopping them. A war with Hizbullah would not only open a second front in Lebanon, but could also open a third further east in Syria, where the group and other Iran-backed fighters have bases.
To the south Israel faces Houthi militants, who control Yemen’s capital. The Houthis are much less powerful than Hizbullah; they probably do not have a big arsenal of long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel. One of its longest-range missiles is the Burkan-2H, a ballistic missile capable of travelling some 900km, according to GlobalSecurity.org, an American think-tank. Other reports suggest that the group’s reach may extend farther. In a recent parade it showed off its new short- and long-range missiles, including Toufan ballistic missiles with a range of up to 1,900km. (It is unclear whether the Houthi can now deploy these outside of military parades.) An American destroyer intercepted three medium-range cruise missiles and a number of drones launched by the Houthis towards Israel in October. The Houthis’ recent activity is raising concerns that its weapons can reach beyond current estimates.
Iran itself will probably not attack Israel directly, though that is not out of the question. It likes to sow uncertainty and instability, not engage in battle. Its proxies have so far signalled restraint, but their firepower poses a very real threat.■
Editor’s note (November 10th): This article has been updated since it was published.
