A vision for the Palestinians after the war

He iS OFTEN mentioned as a possible future leader of the Palestinians. But in a lengthy discussion with The Economist from his home in Abu Dhabi on October 27th Muhammad Dahlan, a former security chief for the Palestinian Authority (PA) from Gaza, denied he wanted the role. In the interview, his first with the Western press since Hamas, the Islamist group that runs Gaza, attacked Israel on October 7th, Mr Dahlan did, however, lay out his vision for what should come after the war for Gaza. It was one of surprising hope, amid the horrors of the fighting.

Born in an impoverished refugee camp in the south of the Gaza Strip, Mr Dahlan rose through the ranks of Yasser Arafat’s Fatah movement, and spent much of the 1980s in Israeli prisons where he learned to speak fluent Hebrew. He was the Palestinian national security adviser when the PA lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007. He has connections on all sides of the conflict. He has enemies in Fatah—notably among the inner circle of Mahmoud Abbas, the PA’s embattled and ageing president. He was convicted of corruption in absentia by a Palestinian court in 2016. But he has plenty of friends too. And he grew up in the Khan Younis refugee camp in southern Gaza alongside much of the current leadership of Hamas so can talk to the Islamist group. He also speaks warmly of his relations with some senior Israeli figures.

Mr Dahlan rubbishes the suggestion that once the war ends any one individual could be shipped in to run Gaza. Instead he suggests a two-year transitional period with an administration run by technocrats in Gaza and the West Bank. That could, he imagines, reunify the Palestinian territories after more than a decade of infighting. After that he envisages parliamentary elections, based on a Palestinian state with, at that point, undefined borders.

All Palestinian political factions should be allowed to participate, including Hamas (fears of a Hamas victory have been one of Israel’s main reasons for blocking Palestinian elections in recent years). Even after this war it would be impossible to govern Gaza without its consent, he argues: “Hamas will not disappear.” He believes that Arab states such as Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) could support such a body. This Palestinian state should then be internationally recognised, including by Israel.

More immediately Mr Dahlan, who has recently returned from Egypt and has close ties with Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt’s president, pours scorn on the idea of allowing refugees into the Sinai peninsula as a way to relieve the crisis in Gaza. “Who is going to take this historical responsibility to be blamed by the Arab population for helping the Israelis to displace the Palestinians?” he says, noting that the mass displacement of Palestinians into Egypt would create serious national-security issues for the government in Cairo.

A parliamentary system as envisaged by Mr Dahlan would yield a prime minister to lead the Palestinians. That would mean doing away with the presidency currently filled by Mr Abbas. Mr Dahlan is in favour of such a shift. It is an “illusion” that any one man can solve the Palestinian issue, he insists: “The time of the heroes passed away with Arafat.” Responding to rumours that he may be Israel’s choice to run Gaza after the war, he rejects the suggestion that he would come in to clean up the mess once the fighting ends.

And yet he firmly sets out his credentials for leadership; he knows Gaza well and has spent 40 years fighting for the Palestinian cause, but he also claims to know the Israelis. He has become a close adviser to Muhammad bin Zayed, the powerful ruler of Abu Dhabi, in recent years. He claims to have channelled around $50m a year from the UAE into Gaza. He has also built a network of support in the West Bank’s refugee camps.

To many, the Palestinian national movement has never looked in worse shape than in the days since Hamas’s attack, and Israel’s retaliation. The long-standing divisions between the leaderships in the West Bank and in Gaza have only worsened, and international backers of the PA have announced reviews of its funding. Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas and the PA seems weaker than ever.

It would be easy to argue that the Palestinians are further away than ever from a state of their own. Yet Mr Dahlan is surprisingly hopeful. He sees an opportunity for the Palestinian cause even in the middle of war. The last month has changed things hugely for the Palestinians, he says. “Three months ago there was zero hope. Who was mentioning the Palestinian cause three months ago? Nobody… Now everybody is talking about our suffering.” ■